Blog

Aviation analytics concern Cirium has published its 2023 Fleet Forecast, through the Cirium Ascend Consultancy, revealing that annual passenger aircraft deliveries are set to exceed a value of $100 billion in 2024. Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.

Cirium Ascend Consultancy Head Rob Morris said: “With global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum.”

From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to lead the way, with China forecast to have the highest passenger capacity growth rate at over 8%. This will make it the largest single country in the region for deliveries, with a 19% share of global deliveries, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 24%.

North American airlines follow with 20% and Europe with 18%. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, but the share rises to 11% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.

The forecast, which enters its 11th year of publication, also predicts that freight capacity will grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022, and that 3,590 freighter aircraft will be supplied over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new build aircraft and 2,530 conversions from passenger planes.

The Cirium Fleet Forecast adopts a scenario-based approach that favors examining the most up-to-date information available, combined with expert commentary and analysis. This year’s forecast is based on the recently adjusted version of Ascend’s 2022 Recovery Scenario 7, which is detailed in the full Fleet Forecast report.