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Plastics industry economist Bill Wood doesn’t foresee a recession, but he warns that slowing growth, weak performance in key sectors and an unprecedented confluence of global and domestic factors make this one of the most difficult economic environments to interpret in decades. Recording below.

“This is the fulcrum of the moment,” Wood said in the June Numbers That Matter editorial livestream. “There’s nothing to suggest there’s been a lot of change — but if you look ahead, you can’t ignore what’s coming down the road.”

Wood described the current landscape as a “calm before a potential storm,” where positive economic signals—strong employment and stable consumer spending — are masking deeper volatility.

With businesses postponing investments, and the impact of newly announced tariffs still yet to appear in economic data, Wood said decision-making is now ruled by hesitation:

“A lot of decisions are being postponed… the economy is in a holding pattern.” 

Wood reiterated that while he is not predicting a recession, slower growth is already taking hold. 

“I kind of smelled less growth,” he said. “If I’m honest, I’ve been more pessimistic than some.”

Wood labeled the housing crisis “pretty acute,” and said interest rate cuts alone may not be enough to fix it. His outlook for the automotive sector is also pessimistic. “I can’t see where the automotive industry is going to get better… it’s just kind of hanging on,” he said.

He advised plastics companies to remain cautious about pricing and investment decisions.

The next Numbers That Matter Live is scheduled for July 22.